A mere 60 days prior when Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while his coach berated him for missing a penetrating pass. At that point, with the team failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether his displays were a symptom or a cause for the team's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the touchline reaction was entirely much more joyous. As the in-form star curled home his brace-sealing goal to reinstate the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his jacket, opened his arms and roared. The Birmingham club continued to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win their initial half-dozen games, now sit a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Serious Challengers?
It remains a particularly tough query to answer. History, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Additionally, their performances haven't been completely commanding in many games, while the wins have stacked up.
As per statistical analysis, twice all season has the team had an expected goals figure notably superior than the opposition. For a side that have put together ten consecutive victories, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – but currently the margins are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic seems to be to engage in a shootout with an opponent and wait for their star man to rescue them with some clinical strikes. This occurred against Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and it happened against the Red Devils.
His opener stemmed from a superb shot, arced right inside the post from the corner of the box. For his second proved to be a slight scruffier version of the opener as he seized on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, the opposition had more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has won each of their last eight by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the greatest opponent they will encounter in the near future. The forward, almost certainly, will not continue to blasting the football into the net's top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Could it be an alternative path where, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet find their top level.
- The main striker might resume adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho might become the player he showed in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually come back from the treatment room, fortifying a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the possibility of a genuine bid, but they surely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
However, nobody expected this. Few believed Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely earlier this season, few could imagine the midfielder now would be spearheading a title charge and appearing as a crucial player for the national team.
This winning streak is to be savoured precisely because it seems so surreal. As Rogers stood in front of the home supporters after the match leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells do not happen often and should be relished.
